Saturday, 31 August 2013
Unemployment to tick up today?
China manufacturing slows
It was still enough to spark a sell-off of Aussie shares, down 1.9% for the first day of the financial year.
Nevertheless, interest rates should be kept on hold tomorrow at 2.75%.
Source: ASX
NatureWise UltraPure GCA Green Coffee Bean Extract Made With 100% Pure GCA, 90 Veggie Caps
Features
- NatureWise UltraPure GCA Green Coffee Bean Extract is the ONLY Green Coffee Bean Extract available on Amazon with 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA (Standardized to 50% Chlorogenic Acids).
- NatureWise UltraPure GCA provides the HIGHEST QUANTITIES PER DAY of Green Coffee Bean Extract and Chlorogenic Acid of any other brand on Amazon. (1,800 mg of GCA per daily serving. 900 mg of Chlorogenic Acid per daily serving. Full 30-Day Supply.)
- Non-stimulating. Decaffeinated. All natural weight loss supplement clinically proven to lower blood sugar levels and burn fat.
- Made exclusively for those who want the very best weight loss results! Full 30-Day Supply. 90 Vegetarian Capsules. Zero Fillers, Zero Binders, and Zero Artificial Ingredients.
- In 2012, the U.S. National Library of Medicine published a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled study that evaluated the impact and safety of using 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA as a weight loss supplement. Over 12 weeks, participants lost an average of 17 pounds by taking 1,050 mg of 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA per day, making no other changes to their diet or exercise. On average, they lost 10% of their body weight and 16% of their total body fat. Moreover, they experienced NO SIDE EFFECTS of any kind.
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Product Description
NatureWise UltraPure GCA Green Coffee Bean Extract
Made exclusively for those who want the very best results, NatureWise UltraPure GCA is the only green coffee bean extract on Amazon that uses 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA, the only clinically proven green coffee bean extract standardized to 50% chlorogenic acids. With 1,800 mg of Pure GCA per daily serving, you are guaranteed to receive the highest quality and quantity of chlorogenic acids per day.
How Does It Work?
The slimming effects of green coffee been extract have nothing to do with caffeine. Green coffee extract only has approximately 20mg of caffeine per serving, whereas an 8oz cup of coffee has approximately 180mg of caffeine per serving. The key ingredient for weight loss is called chlorogenic acid. Chlorogenic acid has been clinically proven to slow the release of sugar into the bloodstream, while simultaneously boosting your metabolism and burning fat in the liver. These two mechanisms work together to inhibit the absorption of fat and eliminate weight gain.
Clinically Proven Results
In 2012, the U.S. National Library of Medicine published a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled study that evaluated the impact and safety of using 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA as a weight loss supplement. Over 12 weeks, participants taking 100% Pure Green Coffee Antioxidant GCA lost an average of 17 pounds, making no other changes to their diet or exercise. On average, they lost 10% of their body weight and 16% of their total body fat. Moreover, they experienced no side effects of any kind. NatureWise UltraPure GCA provides even higher concentrations of chlorogenic acid than were used in the clinical trials to ensure you experience the best possible results.
Quality Guaranteed: GMP Certified Products
NatureWise's commitment to the highest standards of product quality and efficacy are evident throughout our entire product development process. We source our ingredients from specific regions known for their quality and purity, carefully selecting organic, non-GMO, and all natural sources whenever possible. As a continued measure of quality, all ingredient suppliers are required to provide a Certificate of Analysis for each raw material they supply, and each ingredient is verified for purity through in-house or independent laboratory testing. To reduce any chance of physical, chemical, or microbiological contaminants, NatureWise has implemented a strict set of FDA compliant manufacturing procedures to ensure product integrity, including daily inspections of all storage, blending, and production areas. Our facilities meet strict GMP manufacturing standards and are regularly inspected by FDA officials to maintain our certifications.
The NatureWise Difference
NatureWise is the #1 Brand of Green Coffee Bean Extract on Amazon because we are committed to creating the highest quality, most effective products we possibly can. As part of our ongoing effort to continually improve our products, over the past year we've analyzed over 3,000 customer reviews and have personally interviewed thousands of our green coffee bean extract customers to learn specifically what has worked best for them and what has not. Throughout this process, we have improved our green coffee
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Nutri Bullet NBR-12 12-Piece Hi-Speed Blender/Mixer System
Features
- Effortlessly pulverizes fruits, vegetables, superfoods and protein shakes into a delicious, smooth texture
- High-torque power base and 600-watt motor
- Power, patented blade design and cyclonic action combine to extract all nutrients from food helping to achieve the healthiest lifestyle possible
- Includes a power base, 1 tall cup, 2 short cups, 1 flat blade and 1 emulsifying blade, 2 re-sealable lids, pocket nutritionist and manual with recipes
- More power, more capacity
List Price: $119.99
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Product Description
The Nutri Bullet NBR-12 12-Piece Hi-Speed Blender/Mixer System by Magic Bullet is portable, safe for kids, easy to use and effortlessly pulverizes fruits, vegetables, superfoods and protein shakes into a delicious, smooth texture. The Nutri-Bullet's power, patented blade design and cyclonic action combine to extract all of the nutrients from your food helping you to achieve the healthiest lifestyle possible today. To get the most out of your life, you need to get the most out of your food
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Scrapbook Customs Themed Paper and Stickers Scrapbook Kit, Australia Sightseeing
Features
- Contains 4 sheets of 12-inch by 12-inch Scrapbook Paper, 135 Alphabet Character Paper Cut Outs
- Contains 16 Picture Cut Outs and Country Sightseeing Stickers
- Made in the USA
- Acid free and Lignin Free
- Vibrant Color Scheme
List Price: $11.00
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- Scrapbook Customs - World Collection - New Zealand - Cardstock Stickers - Travel
Product Description
Proudly made in the USA, Scrapbook Customs Sightseeing Scrapbook Kits are perfect for Scrapbooking your favorite vacation photos. The items included are educational, so they are perfect to help your kids with their reports. Kit includes one background paper, two flag papers, and one country paper. It also includes a paper cut out alphabet with 135 characters and a 12-inch by 12-inch sightseeing sticker with the country shape, flag, fun phrases, and images. Pictures of the beautiful scenery are also included on a 12-inch by 12-inch sticker. Our papers and stickers are made of high quality cardstock that are acid free and lignin free.
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Takeya Classic Glass Water Bottle with Silicone Sleeve, Purple, 16-1/2-Ounce
Features
- High quality glass bottle provides a healthier way to drink
- Silicone sleeve provides a good grip, a see-through window, and protects the glass vessel
- Eliminates toxic leaching that plastic can cause
- Innovative design holds 16-1/2 ounces
- Dishwasher safe
List Price: $19.99
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Product Description
This Takeya Classic Water Bottle features a high quality glass bottle with a wide mouth, and is encapsulated by a silicone jacket that provides a nice grip, as well as protection for the bottle. The sleeve has a see-through window for checking the liquid level. The twist-off cap is airtight and includes an easy carry loop. This H2O bottle provides a healthier way to drink, and eliminates metallic or plastic tastes, and leaching from toxic plastics. This bottle holds 16-1/2 ounces, is dishwasher safe, and is available in several colors.
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Friday, 30 August 2013
How's the serenity?
Property Update: The Gini coefficient and inequality
Don't forget to subscribe for the newsletter, along with 60,000 other eager property beavers...
The balanced product portfolio
If further investment is needed to retain the star status, companies should provide it, for they have a star product and Microsoft continued to improve Windows with each successive product in order to maintain market dominance. That is a winning investment.
A problem child could gain market share and become a star, and eventually a cash cow when the market matures and growth slows. But if a problem child fails to become a market leader then it could degenerate into a dog. A problem child should therefore be analysed carefully in order to determine whether they are worthy of the investment necessary in order to grow market share.
Take the example of a small start-up business in China which supplies automotive parts. It is placed in a booming industry but only has a small market share. It probably needs to invest in order to gain market share.
The diversified portfolio
Just like an individual investor, the balanced company with the diversified portfolio can capitalise on its resources. Ideally the company should have:
-stars, the high growth of which represent the future of the business
-cash-cows, to supply the funds for future investment and to keep the business alive
-problem children or question marks - to be invested in to be converted into tomorrow's stars
Dogs, of course, should be divested.
Not dissimilarly, the individual investor should ultimately aim to have cash flow investments to pay for living expenses and to fund new investments, and capital growth investments to create long-term wealth.
To a lesser extent investors can also apply the principles to their own portfolios. In an ideal world, we'd all own star investments which continue to outperform for decades to come.
Other investments, even if they are lacking in growth potential we may elect to hold if they generate a continuing strong cash flow. Examples might include fixed income investments or commercial properties.
A problem child, might be represented by a company which itself needs to undertake investment, restructuring or perhaps a transition to production in order to become a future star. Alternatively, you might own a run-down property which could, through investment, be turned into a desirable, multi-dwelling, outperforming investment.
In the world of real estate, it is popular to say that the superior investment strategy is to "never, ever sell". It's true that due to the material transaction costs involved in acquiring and disposing of property, a well-located property is best held indefinitely.
But if you own a genuine dog, the law of opportunity cost requires that it is disposed of so that funds can be more appropriately allocated elsewhere.
Some property investors like to say "property prices can never crash to zero". Well, I'm afraid that in some circumstances they absolutely can. Ultimately, real estate is only worth what another person is prepared to pay for it, so you need to own investments in locations in the greatest demand. Sometimes it makes sense to dispose a dog investment and re-invest in a superior location.
Stocks belted; AUD hits 20 month low
Thursday, 29 August 2013
ASX sell-off
Wednesday, 28 August 2013
England steamrollered by a vegetarian
Aussie stocks follow US higher
The S&P 500 is shattering records in the US - up for 7 days in a row (+0.31% on Friday) to a record 1,680.19/
However, Aussie bank valuations may be sliding, with hedge funds said to be taking short positions.
Source: ASX
Adesso 4099-15 Gyoza Floorchiere 67-Inch Floor Lamp with Rice-Paper Shade, Walnut
Features
- Contemporary floor lamp provides overall room illumination
- Satin-steel pole on a squared 10-inch-wide wood block with a rich walnut finish
- Collapsible white rice-paper shade measures 43 inches high by 12 inches in diameter
- On/off foot-step switch; uses 3 100-watt bulbs (not included)
- Measures 12 inches long by 12 inches wide by 67 inches high
List Price: $119.99
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Product Description
The Gyoza Floorchiere lamp brings simplicity and serenity to any space. This is not your average floor lamp! A satin steel pole holds aloft a collapsible rice paper shade. The base of this lamp is a squared wood block with a rich walnut finish. This elegant Asian influenced design also has a touch of modernity with an on/off footstep switch. The Gyoza Floorchiere lamp will bring the natural harmony of wood, paper and light to any space. This lamp also makes a gorgeous accent piece while not in use, and would be a stylish housewarming gift.
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Commodities tumbling
Not good news for Australia and increases the likelihood of a further rate cut in the coming few months.
In brighter news, our manufacturing index picked up sharply today.
BHP production +17% y/y
"Western Australia Iron Ore delivered a thirteenth consecutive annual production record as shipments in the June 2013 quarter increased to an annualised rate of 217 million tonnes"
HIA: New home sales climbing since September 2012
A bit odd to see such a huge increase in Victoria, although monthly figures can be volatile.
Tuesday, 27 August 2013
Billabong sunk
Source: ASX
---
Is Aussie construction picking up?
Monday, 26 August 2013
Melbourne "solid"; Sydney "stunning"
Sydney recorded a 77.4% auction clearance rate with a surge in listings this weekend:
Property Update: an economics lesson
Sunday, 25 August 2013
OK-5109f 62-Inch Crystal Silver Floor Lamp
Features
- Ul-listed
- Max: 40-watt light bulb
- On/off switch
- 17-Inch L x 17-Inch W x 62-Inch H
List Price: $383.59
Special Offer: check this out!
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Product Description
62-Inch Crystal silver floor lamp. Simple and elegant floor lamp featuring a silver finish on classic lines and white shade. Draped in crystals. It's for any of room. The instructions are included and easy to install.
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Saturday, 24 August 2013
Mortgages for 4.69%?
2 year fixed - 4.69%
3 year fixed - 4.79%
5 year fixed - 5.09%
The major Aussie banks are also offering very low fixed rates now as the competition for market share hots up.
Shares finally seeing a brighter trade up ~1.60% so far, with they bank stocks rebounding...
Halo 2
Features
- Master Chief can now wield two weapons at once, board Covenant vehicles and steal Covenant weapons like the incredible double energy sword
- Lead an all-new unit of super-soldiers, the ODST -- tougher, badder and deadlier versions of your old comrades
- New enemies, allies and surprises around every corner - intense combat action with enhanced AI and real-time lighting
- Immense single-player action with maassive landscapes and huge cities to explore and defend - destructible and interactive environments
- Take the action online with your Xbox Live and switch sides, to become a Covenant Elite!
- Works with an Xbox 360 console
List Price: $19.99
Special Offer: check this out!
Amazon.com
Halo 2 is one of those rare video games that garnishes attention from regular folk who wouldn't know which direction to point a game controller. With more than 1.5 million pre-orders and a massive release party in Times Square, the game enjoys the sort of buzz, and sales, generally reserved for boy wizards. But does it merit the hype?
Opening Scene
Halo 2 opens with a cut scene in the Covenant Holy City of High Charity. Much has happened since Master Chief (that's you) created so much havoc for the Covenant in the first Halo, and the Arbiter has much atoning to do for his failures. This first cut scene is long, but the lush graphics, orchestral sound, and polished voice talent for both this and other cut scenes as well as the game itself put most animated television shows to shame.
Much has happened since Master Chief created so much havoc for the Covenant in the first Halo, and the Arbiter has much atoning to do.
In the end, though, Halo 2 is unabashedly a first-person shooter. It has a Mature rating and is not meant for kids. Gameplay is constant and intense. No sooner is one bunch of aliens taken care of than another descends. The controls are identical to the first game so those familiar with it will be up and blasting in no time. And the sound and graphics have been beefed up so that Halo 2 is undoubtedly one of the most beautiful console games available.
Opening Fire
Most of the weapons from the first game return, although strangely the MA5B Assault Rifle (the default weapon in the first game) is not available. There is a single melee weapon known as the Covenant Sword, but the controls for it are the same as that for all the shooter weapons, making it difficult to direct. Also, for a new twist, you can hold two of the smaller guns at the same time and shoot double-fisted.
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Thursday, 22 August 2013
Retail trade, construction too soft-- RBA needs to cut
Is Australia really like Japan?
Forget fundamentals, this is the new normal: booming asset valuations when the QE tap is turned on, and a panicked stampede for the exits at the merest hint of it being switched off again.
Cashmore also explains why established dwellings in Australia's inner suburbs are frequently favoured by homebuyers and investors to new housing stock in the outer and fringe locations, and, importantly, that while the supply and demand of dwellings have an impact on prices, perhaps the supply of and demand for credit have a greater bearing.
Why deflation will be avoided at all costs
It's all too common for people to criticise our inflationary economy, but maybe it's worth re-capping on why deflation should and will be countered at all costs.
In theory, you might think that price deflation could be a good thing. We could go down to the servo and find that instead of being charged an extortionate 100 bucks fill up the Holden Thunder ute and acquire a four 'n' twenty pie with a pack of Lamington fingers (for this is how most Australians live, of course), it might only cost us $80 and we'd be effectively richer as a result. Cool.
Rewind the clock, though, to the Great Depression, where price deflation was accompanied with falling prices (including real estate prices), banks collapsing, countless companies going bust, astronomical levels of unemployment and the most brutal period of the 20th century across the globe. Just like the more recent global financial crisis, the Great Depression was preceded by debt-funded greed and speculation, and the Dow Jones index increasing by a preposterous fivefold in just six years.
When prices fall, those who hold debt are punished, and this is particularly so in the housing market. You could buy a house with a $500,000 mortgage today only to discover that the underlying asset is only worth $400,000 next year, leading to what is known euphemistically as being in 'negative equity' (i.e. up the creek, minus paddle).
It's fairly common today for people to say that anyone with mortgage debt has got it coming to them, and they'd deserve all they get. That may be so, but the real problem with a deflationary economy is the potentially relentless downward spiral.
The deflationary spiral
If you think you can buy the Lamingtons and the four 'n' twenty next week for fewer dollars than this week, you'd likely become discinclined to spend, and this leads to consumers hoarding cash. Retail trade dries up and Caltex probably have to drop their prices further to entice you back to the servo.
This becomes a total nightmare for Caltex because they still have to pay the pump attendant a $40,000 salary, but their turnover and margins are getting clobbered. They probably have to lay off one of the pump attendants.
Of course, with no job, the ex-pump attendant won't be borrowing money to buy a house, so the amount of money in the economy falls. It's the exact opposite of inflation where too much money is chasing too few goods pushing up prices.
The real risk in this circumstance is accelerating deflation (which is what Professor Steven Keen erroneously predicted would happen to house prices in the latter half of 2012; instead they increased strongly, largely due to investors returning to the market in anticipation of further price gains).
The best case outcome for the Australian housing market (in my humble opinion, at least - renters always disagree) is that prices continue to increase, but only moderately and at a lower level than the growth in wages, thereby effectively becoming cheaper over time. Unfortunately, price movement is rarely so uniform.
High inflation also brings its own uncertainties and can lead to boom-bust cycles, which is why we have a target range of inflation of 2-3%.
What if Australia stumbles towards recession?
Three things would happen. Firstly, interest rates would be dropped. Unfortunately interest rates in Australia can only drop so far until they hit a number starting with a '0', so if that doesn't work, the 'printing presses' will be switched on (QE), which actually means that the RBA will start buying assets (e.g. bonds), effectively increasing the money supply.
And thirdly, specifically with regards to the property markets, if prices began to slide dramatically, there would likely be other interference, such as, for example, relaxing the rules on foreign buyers, or other meddling. Non-property owners don't like it being said, but that's what, in my opinion, would probably happen.
It's easy for pundits to be critical the RBA's policy of targeted inflation, but, much like when we complain about getting older, it sure as heck beats the alternative.
Tuesday, 20 August 2013
Infinity Reference 860w 8-Inch 1,000-Watt High-Performance Subwoofer (Single Voice Coil)
Features
- 8-inch single voice coil subwoofer with 1000 Watts peak power handling
- High-efficiency polypropylene woofer cone with large-roll rubber surrounds ensure efficient, clean bass
- Vented polepieces provides additional cooling to increase power handling
- Modest mounting depth allows for use in most ported, sealed and bandpass sub enclosures
- One-year warranty
List Price: $99.95
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Infinity's 860w 8-inch Single Voice Coil Subwoofer makes the perfect upgrade to your factory system or where space is an issue.
The Infinity Reference Series Infinity's Reference Series has been engineered to deliver best-in-class performance for those looking to replace or upgrade their factory speakers. Features like Infinity's Plus One (patent pending) woofer cones and edge-driven-dome tweeters have helped position Infinity Reference as the number-one line of automotive loudspeakers for the past six years straight.
The perfect upgrade to your factory system or where space is an issue.
Infinity 860w Features
Large-roll rubber surrounds
This material provides optimum cone-edge suspension and absorbs distortions that may travel up the cone edge, ensuring clean, tight bass.
Vented pole pieces
Provides additional cooling of the motor structure is provided. The subwoofer's thermal capabilities are augmented, thus increasing power handling.
High-efficiency polypropylene woofer cones
This lightweight and popular material is used to ensure maximum woofer efficiency. The benefit is high output with modest amplifier power.
Progressive Spider
Progressive spider construction better controls speaker excursion. Translation? Better sound with less distortion.
Mounting Versatility
The subwoofer's mounting depth allows for use in most sub enclosures--ported, sealed and bandpass.
Infinity 860w Specifications Power Handling, RMS: 250 Watts Power Handling, Peak: 1000 Watts Sensitivity: 91dB Frequency Response: 30Hz - 400Hz Impedance: 4 Ohms Mounting Depth: 5-3/16 inches(131 mm)
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Housing bust has been a real fizzer
Some housing bust predictions
I note in passing that the Australian population when Jenman made his first crash call, as recorded in the 2001 Australian Census, was 18.972 million, as compared to 23.115 million today. Demand for housing in capital city suburbs is rising with every passing week.
The property crash predictions have continued, yet prices in many areas have kept on climbing:
In fact, only Sydney's housing markets have broken through to new highs, with all other markets below previous peaks, which thus represents something of a decline in real terms.
Housing finance data
Source: ABS
Prices declining in real terms?
FHBs
However, you choose to define the word 'recovery', it's heartening to see the number of first homebuyer commitments picking up over the last few months, although the value of their commitments remains relatively low to date. I have long felt that FHBs will gradually come back into the market once they believe that prices won't fall further, but this is one data set to keep a close eye on.
Investors are leading the recovery
Sydney prices are up +8.5% in this cycle already, with the inner west markets running very hot (as I've been saying forever and a day now, it's the $500k-$1 million inner west suburbs which represent the hot markets).
It may not have been a bad strategy from 1993-2005 for those for whom servicing investment mortgages was an issue, but it's the wrong strategy today. If you are waiting for households to simply keep on taking on ever more mortgage debt in perpetuity and prices to magically keep increasing ahead of incomes you are likely to be very disappointed.
The recovery in property markets has been investor-led, which means that quality inner-city markets will be the likely outperformers - the regional markets/fringe suburbs look much more likely to me to struggle badly. If you want to outperform you will need to anticipate where the next huge wave of speculative investment capital is heading, and that is to the four main capital cities, and in particular, to Sydney suburbs close to the city.
Melbourne has already experienced a tremendous boom in prices since 2007. Perth is travelling very strongly again with its low unemployment levels of just 4.6% and booming population growth. And prices in Sydney seem set for more very strong growth. I'll be forced to change the broken record on Sydney's inner west at some point, but judging from the scorching auction clearance rates recorded on Saturday, not for quite some time to come yet.