China data extends US stock records

It's a day for records.

The data out of China sees the S&P 500 in the US continue to break records up to 1,682.50 and the Dow ticked up 20 points or so to 15,484.

The S&P 500 has now closed up for 9 consecutive trades as investors continue to be buoyed be stimulus.

Global confidence not strong

Global confidence is not strong.

Is the US economy recovering with better times ahead Fed believes? Or is China in a liquidity crisis and a bubble? 

Perhaps both, but Dr. Copper certainly isn't looking very cheerful.

Source: kitco

China growth slows to 7.7%

From Business Spectator:

"China's trade surplus widened less than expected in June, according to official statistics.

In June, China's trade surplus came in at $US27.12 billion ($A29.85 billion), after a May result of $US20.43 billion.

Bloomberg analysts forecast a trade surplus of $US27.8 billion.

Exports in the month decreased by 3.1 per cent, against expectations of a 3.7 per cent rise.

Imports shrank by 0.7 per cent, well below expectations of a six per cent increase.

Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng says China's foreign trade is "facing grave challenges".

The main cause was "prolonged sluggish foreign demand", followed by rising export prices in foreign currency terms, labour costs, and a deteriorating trade environment due to rising trade disputes, he said.

But the trade surplus for the first six months of 2013 was substantially higher than the same period last year, the statistics showed, up 58.5 per cent to $US107.95 billion.

First half exports rose 10.4 per cent to $US1.05 trillion and imports increased 6.7 per cent to $US944.87 billion.

Mr Zheng said the factors bedevilling China's trade situation are likely to linger over the short term."

Futures markets are now pricing in an August interest rate cut as 62% likely.

Inflation remains soft

The inflation data today did not reveal any horrors, so the Reserve Bank has the 'room' to cut interest rates should it so wish.

The headline rate of CPI was only 0.4% for the quarter, leading to a year-on-year figure of 2.4%, or 2.3% seasonally adjusted.

This is broadly in the middle of the targeted range of 2-3%.



Source: ABS

When the one-off effect of the carbon tax is stripped out, the headline result might be considered to be at the bottom of the target range at close to 2%, which might imply that an interest rate cut is in the pipeline.

However, an interest rate cut is not a done deal.

The weighted median and trimmed mean readings, which are the Reserve Bank's preferred measures as those which look to strip out the impact of outlying readings and thus provide a more balanced result, showed a slightly different picture.

Source: ABS

Year-on year, these measures came in at 2.2% and 2.6%.

While these figures also suggest that there is room for a cut, some exercise might be cautioned as so-called 'tradeables inflation' may be expected to increase as a result of the Australian dollar having fallen from above 106 cents towards the bottom of the 90 cent range.

The other news which may have a bearing on the August interest rate decision today was a weaker-than-expected flash PMI reading from China.

On balance, futures markets remain undecided, and price in a cut as around a 6 in 10 chance, while the dollar took a while to make its own mind up, before settling on something of an each way bet sitting at around 92.5 cents.

---

The two-speed nature of the housing market continues to be emphasised with dwelling prices in Adelaide falling by 2.9% over the last quarter, while those in Sydney increased by 3.5% according to RP Data.

Yield-chasing investors have been tipping Adelaide for half a decade, but they got it wrong. 

In fact, throwing a pin at an Australian property dart board would on average have scored a much better result.

Labour data pushes out the next rate cut

The futures markets continue to price in another interest rate cut to 2.50%, but after the promising Labour Force and unemployment data, it doesn't look to be coming for a month or three yet.

We've also had several consecutive months of steadily increasing housing finance data, which suggests that the notion of falling dwelling prices was flawed, as a fair number of us had intimated all along. 

Back on June 4, the RBA left the official cash rate in June unchanged at 2.75%

The next RBA Board Meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on July 2 and 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures July 2013 contracts are trading a shade above 97.3, which indicates only about a one-in-four expectation of an interest rate decrease to 2.50% at the next RBA Board meeting.

Given that the next round of CPI (inflation) data, isn't due until July 24, I'd have to agree that August 6 looks to be a significantly more likely candidate for a rate cut than July does.

And by then, of course, we'll all have a clearer picture on retail activity and more employment stats to digest.

Potential curve balls on the horizon - a bubble in China? Some concerning news stories doing the rounds...

Source: ASX

China manufacturing slows

As anticipated by forecasts, China's manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 50.1.

It was still enough to spark a sell-off of Aussie shares, down 1.9% for the first day of the financial year.

Nevertheless, interest rates should be kept on hold tomorrow at 2.75%.



Source: ASX

Rising exports lead to trade surplus in May

4th month of trade surplus in a row, driven by a large jump in iron ore exports and coal. A large increase in exports to China this month.

Trade surplus was $670m for the month, with the market only having expected around $50m.

Heartening to know that we do also sell resources and not only build mines!

Source: ABS

The Dursley's, feminism, and post-consumer bloat

We've taken Beanie to JC Penney's for portraits at 6 and 9 months. We order an 8 x 10 from each session. A few weeks ago I put the last one in a frame, and it is sitting on the very top of our entertainment center.

And I feel like the Dursley's. A big, zoomed-in portrait of our precious child, beaming out and placed front-and-center like the most important and only child ever to grace this planet.

I feel like I am bragging and flaunting. I fear bringing the evil eye to our home.

She's been in bed since about 6:30, not even five hours. I find myself looking up at the picture, and being warmed inside.

Triple S was sick today, so he is also in bed. I can hear him snoring, alternating with the dog here in the living room.

I cherish this quiet time in the house. It's dark and quiet outside; I feel enclosed in the comfort of my own home. There's no TV, no radio. Just the sounds of my loved ones breathing. I can even see the rise and fall of the cat's torso as he lays curled up on the radiator.

And I have space. Space to think, to feel, to ponder. To hope, dream and worry. If I go to bed, I'd fall asleep, without exploring my inner world.

My life has changed over the last few years. Almost to a point that is incomprehensible and unrecognizable. A paradigm shift. Everything that I spend my time on now is different than in 2007, when I was pregnant.

My SIL and I briefly spoke of feminism recently. I believe that in some ways, the opening of the workplace to women has put a tremendous burden upon us.

Oh, I hear squeaks coming from the bedroom. I'll have to finish these thoughts later!

Later:

Now it is bright and snowing. I am still safely ensconced in my house!

Any way, bra burning and women in the workplace.

Now, to be a successful woman and a successful mom, the expectation is out there that you can have a job, raise your kids, have a sparkling clean house, cook for the bake sale. Do it all.

But, if you want a high pressure career, like being an academic scientist, you probably don't want to have kids. I think back to the women 'role models' when I was in grad school.  I can easily recall 4 or 5 women professors, and I think one of them had kids. My own PI, a male, sent his kids back to China to be with their grandparents for a year. Sure, I think it's great to spend time with grandparents and I understand the Chinese tradition of the kids being raised by the older generation, but I know a certain someone who was glad to have the kids off his hands so he could work from 8 to 11. And I don't mean 11 am.

So, if you want to be a PI, you have to compete against the people who are willing to 1) not have a family or 2) ship the family off and out of the way.

That was a bit of a digression. Anyway.

So, one thing about women's liberation. I think it has put tremendous pressure on women to do all and be all. And this pressure comes from other women, from thinking that we are keeping up with the Joneses, from ourselves even perhaps.

Since Serenity died, I've learned to be brave and to define my happiness my own way. It was hard to quit my PhD at the time I was quitting. I wasn't happy and I didn't know anyone who was happy with a PhD either. But I didn't like the 'quitting' part. It would have been easier to just stay the course. Not to have to admit that I was wrong in deciding to pursue a PhD.

And now I look back, and wonder if I should have even gone on and got the Master's. Maybe if I had stepped back a step further, I would have gone back to more of what I learned for my bachelor's. Gone back to farming, because that is one thing I think I might want to do with my future once Beanie starts school. Of course, having the MS and having worked at the bench for all those years allows me to do the freelance work that I now do, at a decent wage, at home, around Bea's (and my blogging) schedule.

Returning to feminism, I think there are still issues to work out. Reports tell us that women continue to make less than their male counterparts. We have a laughable maternity leave policy in the US. Breastfeeding is still ostracized and under-supported. Pregnancy is all about glowing and not about real medical issues and treating pregnant women like they have a brain and can handle hearing about the risks to themselves and their babies. I don't know what academic feminists work on, maybe things more esoteric, but these are some of the issues I see down here in the trenches of modern life and motherhood.

I do have to say that I feel like a radical feminist. I am educated, yet I have chosen to stay home with my baby. That's not an easy choice to make, to give up the career identity.  (I am glad to have the choice, and that's thanks to women's lib; and everyone else can choose to do whatever they want*) I was thinking about staying at home when pregnant with Serenity. I think I might have taken the plunge once she was born. One of the reasons I never wanted to have kids when I was younger was that I never wanted to rush through work and off to daycare.  It's too much like trying to do two things at once for me. And I don't think it would sit well with me having my baby in daycare. I have a friend who has been through four daycare situations in 8 months. I think she is a perfect candidate for staying home, but she is in the middle of getting a degree. But sometimes you can't do it all to your satisfaction. If you were less picky about your science or less picky about how often your kid's diaper gets changed* or lived closer to where you worked, you could do it. But you can't have it all at perfection. Something has to give.

Wouldn't it be great if we lived in a society in which every woman got six years to be pregnant and get the kid to kindergarten and could then re-enter the workforce right where she left off? Or maybe you wouldn't like that? And that's one problem with having A movement. Not everyone agrees on what they want.

Some of the other SAHMs that I meet are punky radicalists too. They're into healthy eating and living and nursing their toddlers and tandem nursing their kids. This is not mainstream folks. Sure, green is a buzz word on many lips, but I don't think everyone really gets it. And it takes time. If you are working full time, you don't have the time to educate yourself. There is so much greenwashing out there. Some of the choices that have gone mainstream are better than what was available just two years ago, but they are kinda half-way.

I would be perfectly happy if Beanie had no plastic toys and no stuffed animals with plastic stuffing (colloquially known as polyester). But family members continue to derail my efforts. I spend hours (HOURS) researching toys and picking out a very few, value-added, educational, non-petrol, non-toxic, non-slave-shop-made toys.  Only to have the house filled up with stuff I am not really into.  I have an Amazon list people.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, Janis at Ferdinand's Gifts posts about simplifying her life. With this move we have coming up, I think it is an opportunity for us to do the same. I come from a family of packrats, holding onto things for sentimental or 'investment' purposes. From what I have read so far, this is very much not 'minimalist'.

So, this morning, I went to the basement, pulled out my record collection, looked through each sleeve one last time, and bagged them up to take to the record exchange. My record player has been on the fritz for a few years, and I haven't sat in the basement room (it's dark and lonely down there) to listen to records probably since 2006 or 2007. As I was looking at the records, Triple S said, "Those are something you used to truly enjoy. I don't think you should get rid of them. I'll buy you a new turntable when we move." I persevered. I can always buy these songs on ITunes, right? It'll be the same, right? And this way I can finally enter the 21st century and get an IPod!

I am also getting rid of clothes (I have a wardrobe that consists of sizes 6-12). I am getting rid of everything bigger than what fits me RIGHT now, because I never want to where those clothes again. I still want to loose 10-15 more pounds this spring, although I am not getting anywhere on that right now. When we move, I want all my clothes to fit in two plastic tubs (one if we move somewhere without a real winter). Can I do it? Does posting it on my blog make me accountable?

I am also thinking about books. But I don't think I am there yet. Maybe if I plan on getting a Kindle.....

I also plan to unload some furniture and some of the things I got from my Grandmother's house. For instance, she had this rocking chair, I don't know if it was someone's before her or not, but it is an uncomfortable SOB. She never sat in it. I never sit in it. It was in Bea's nursery for about a day, and I just couldn't take it. Then why the heck do I have it? I seem to be able to remember my grandmother without the chair, so I think I'll be just fine if I donate it.

These are some of my personal missions, some of the ideas that I have. Not an essay, maybe not coherent, but definitely stream of conscious.

What do you think about feminism and reproduction? Do you feel like more or less of a feminist with infertility? Infant loss? Or do you think the 'go for a career and delay childbearing' screwed you over?

And, are you an unapologetic consumer? Or a careful steward of both your wallet and your health?

***
*yes, we still have an entertainment center, since we don't yet have a flat screen, HD, LCD TV. Our 12-year-old tiny little TV works just fine.

*If you feel like you really do have a choice. I think that may be part of the point I am trying to make. We don't have perfect choices

*she's using cloth diapers with the cotton right against the skin (no liner) and yep, you really have to change those diapers as soon as the kid wees. 

February 6, 2011

Oh Serenity. I miss you, girl.

***

Bea has a multitude of nicknames. So many, in fact, that I don't think she recognizes any as 'her' name.

As a matter of fact, the dog also has many nicknames. She does know her 'given' name. She also basically just answers to tone of voice, as we've tried calling her in gibberish and she still answers. Such is a dog.

The cat also has a few nicknames.

But Serenity, Serenity is just Serenity.

We rarely refer to her by her Chinese name. She never got a sweet name like cutie or sweetie. She never learned to smile. She never was a stinker nor acted squirrly.

She never revealed her personality to us.  She never had favorites. She never did anything remarkable.

But we love her still.

***

I see her in the butterflies, the snow, the rain, the fall leaves. Today we will burn incense for Da Ku* and Serenity at the park. I will put out birdseed where we released butterflies. We will read a poem or two out in the cold, on this overcast day. And we will bake a cake.


* Triple S' oldest aunt passed away and her funeral is today (or yesterday) in China.