RBA's chart pack shows uneven property market recovery

The RBA chart pack clearly shows the strongest gains to be in Sydney and Perth over the past 12 months.

While Brisbane prices fell from their peak there are at least some signs of life in that market.

Adelaide median prices and the regional Australian property markets have shown no median price growth for around four years. 

In the case of most regional markets, as I noted yesterday, I expect gains to remain weak. 

Of course, regional investors will doubtless say I'm wrong - but the charts continue to tell their own story.

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Aussie dollar is crumbling...it touched 94.4 cents earlier in the trade. Stay tuned for US payrolls tomorrow...

SQM's asking prices show multi-speed property recovery

Nice tool this from SQM Research, which allows you to view movements in asking prices by postcode.

Asking prices for houses in Sydney (+7.3%) and Perth (+7.4%) have moved up strongly over the past 12 months. Darwin also has seen asking prices well up.

In other cities, asking prices have not responded to record low interest rates in the same way.

Source: SQM

Sydney dwelling prices +2.7% in June

The month draws to a close and RP Data's index shows that Sydney dwelling prices are up more than 2.7% in the month of June alone, increasing substantially from $649,000 to more than $667,000.

While I'm not a fan on monthly figures due to their inherent volatility, this should at least put an end to the flawed discussions of prices falling (or more properties being sold into a falling market) - they aren't.

While futures markets have priced in a one-in-five chance of an interest rate cut on Tuesday, particularly in light of the below figures, interest rates must surely be kept on hold in July. 

The futures yield curve still expects interest rates to hit 2.50% by October 2013, but any signals of rapid dwelling price appreciation certainly won't encourage further cuts.

The next round of inflation data for the June quarter will be released on 24 July which will play a key role in determining future interest rate movements.

Over the past 12 months all of the main capital cities except for Adelaide have demonstrated capital growth, with Sydney (+5.6%) and Perth (+6.0%) leading the way.

The 5 city capital aggregate has consequently increased (+3.9%) over the period.

Source: RP Data

Sydney property boom

Property prices in Sydney have surged on to new all-time heights.

No surprises for guessing which sectors of the market are the hottest - reports APM:

"Sydney’s winter auction market continues to surge with another strong auction clearance rate recorded at the weekend. Despite the beginning of school holidays and the wet weather, Sydney’s weekend rate of 77.4 percent was another exceptional result from a winter market that so far shows no signing of waning.

Buyer activity in Sydney’s auction market has continued to rise since Easter with the strong results recorded over April and May now increasing over June. Since the Queen’s birthday holiday weekend Sydney’s weekend auction clearance rates have averaged 76.3 percent compared to the 74.7 percent averaged between Easter and the Queen’s birthday.

Both these results are the highest level of buyer activity in the Sydney auction market recorded at this time of the year for ten years.

Sydney’s inner west recorded another extraordinary result at the weekend with properties in that region continuing to walk out the door. The inner west clearance rate of 90 percent at an average sale price of $966,500 was not only the highest clearance rate recorded of all the suburban regions but was achieved from the highest number of listings. Sydney’s city and east suburban region also produced an exceptional 89 percent clearance rate at an average sale price of $963,764 and also from solid listing numbers."

Inner west "the new prestige environment"

It might be a stretch to say that the inner west of Sydney is the new prestige environment for property owners - the eastern suburbs will always be the most favoured as they are closer to the beaches - but as I've suggested on this blog since I first started it, the inner west has been the hot sector for some time.

These things move in cycles, though, and the east's time will come again. The lower north shore is also a popular choice these days.

The popular press and the laggards are finally latching on to the fact that the property markets are on the up, which has been reflected in the figures reported by RP Data since the start of the cycle: Sydney +8.5% to a new peak, Perth +9.0% and even Melbourne once again +6.5%.

However, the gains have been muted in Brisbane and Adelaide given the low interest rate environment.

It's probably time to start looking ahead to when this property cycle will stall and reverse.

With all major capital city markets other than Sydney remaining below their peaks and Sydney perhaps showing the strongest fundamentals, it could be a case of the Sydney market running away as the rest plateau. 

Perth has surprised us before so it will be interesting to see if it can keep up its outstanding run.

Dwelling prices surge in June

Reports of the death of the housing market recovery in May seem to have been greatly exaggerated.

In truth, as I noted at the time, plenty of commentators and agents 'at the coalface' suggested that prices had not eased in May, it was likely a blip in the data, which has now reversed in June.

RP Data's index for June shows dwelling prices up an exceptionally strong 1.7% for the month to date.

Prices in Sydney seem to have gone bananas, up more than 2.5% in the last 19 days to a new record high of $664,290 - although I suspect the likelihood is that prices have rather been on a reasonable uptrend for a year (rather than the oscillating results implied through charting daily prices).

Source: RP Data

In the last 12 months prices are up in all major capital cities, although prices in Adelaide have been essentially flat. The strongest capital city markets have been Perth (+7.26%) and Sydney (+5.22%), with Melbourne also recording solid gains (+3.26%).

Source: RP Data

Productivity crisis...

...in the Blogging sector.

All been a bit light on blogs this week, I'm aware.

In my defence, I'm on a tropical south-east Asian island with a large coral reef, so there are better things to be doing than droning on about share prices and the like.

Fear not, though, as I'm flying out tomorrow and will return afresh with a barrage of new content in due course.

Aussie dollar has staged something of a fightback while I've been out snorkelling, helped no doubt by the better-than expected jobs data - back above 96 cents, though we'll see for how long.

Better day ahead for stocks (overdue!) and...surprise, surprise, property values are 'moving up' again.

I'm not sure they were ever going down really...just the index correcting itself after overcooking the gains in Q1. Sydney and Perth markets looking very strong indeed at the moment.

Sydney auction boom continues

APM reports another stonking 81% auction clearance rate in the harbour city.

Extraordinary results which are commensurate with double digit price gains being recorded.

In contrast, Melbourne's auction clearance rate slipped to a reported 63%, as the winter months begin to cool the market.

As noted, this property market cycle could end up being Sydney going it alone.

Homeowners $30,000 better off than 12m ago

Reports RP Data here. On average homeowners are $30,000 better off than in June 2012 reports the article.

In Darwin they are $56,600 better off, in Perth more than $50,000, in Sydney more than $46,000, in Melbourne $31,000, in Hobart $16,000 and in Canberra $29,000.

An awkward result for the Don't Buy Now campaign which advised first homebuyers to stay out of the property market in February 2012, stating that buyers should wait until prices fell by 15-20% before buying.