Wednesday, 9 October 2013

GDP growth soft at 0.6% (2.5% annual)

A couple of revisions to previous quarters but the magic number for the March quarter was GDP growth of  0.6% for y/y growth of 2.5%.

This disappointed against market expectations of 0.8% q/q and 2.7% y/y.

It seems a bit of a nonsense to have the RBA Board Meeting the day before such key data, as they quite probably would have cut interest rates with this knowledge.

Now expecting interest rates to be cut in July (or potentially in August post-inflation data) to 2.50%.

On the bright side and looking at things from a broader perspective, Australia's economy has not been in recession since September 1991, so if monetary policy can do its thing then we should be set for a 23rd year and beyond of economic growth.

Given what's going down elsewhere, that's something to be glad about.

Drilling into the state numbers, it was a weaker quarter for WA's economy, but QLD and NSW looking solid with total spending +3.9% and +2.1% respectively.

GDP is a retrospective figure so the Aussie dollar only softened only a touch to 96.15 cents, and Aussie stocks down with the XJO off ~1.4%.

GDP - quarterly growth rates

Graph: GDP growth rates, Volume measures, quarterly change

Source: ABS

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