BIS: Sydney property prices to grow by 19%

BIS are always an optimistic bunch, forecasting Sydney property prices to rise by 19% over the coming three years, and Newcastle growth of 18%. The cheapest sector of Sydney's market is the underperformer, while the middle market powers on to new heights. 

Despite ongoing reports of unaffordability and booming prices, 90% of properties in the inner west sold at auction this weekend, and 89% for City and East.

Reports SMH:

"As a new financial year dawns, independent experts now agree that Sydney's home values are growing.

RP Data released its June figures on Monday showing a 2.7 per cent rise in dwelling values over the month. In May, despite Australian Property Monitors saying strong auction clearance rates indicated price growth, RP Data said values had dropped 1 per cent.

RP Data national research director Tim Lawless said his company's index movements closely mirrored the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment which had showed a similar trend over the past three months: down in April and May followed by a rise in June.

Mr Lawless said improved equity market conditions in 2013 had led to an increase in dwelling values in Sydney’s prestige suburbs.

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‘‘Sydney’s most expensive suburbs have seen dwelling values rise by 4.8 per cent over the past six months compared with a 3.2 per cent rise in values at the most affordable end of the market and a 4.6 per cent gain across the broad middle-priced segment of the Sydney market.”

Meanwhile, BIS Shrapnel said on Monday that Sydney's median house price of $670,000 in June reflected a 4 per cent increase over the past financial year.

"The Sydney residential market now appears to be gaining some momentum after being weak for the best part of the last decade," BIS senior manager Angie Zigomanis said.

"We are forecasting total price growth in Sydney over the three years to June 2016 to be 19 per cent, or a moderate 5.9 per cent per annum."

Mr Zigomanis said the strength of the Sydney market was due to a sustained period of underbuilding, which had led to low vacancy rates and strong rental growth since 2007. Large numbers of investors were flooding the market. Low interest rates were also helping.

However, BIS noted that first home buyer numbers had dropped in 2013 because government incentives last year had pulled demand forward. It expects normal levels of first-home buying by next year.

BIS Shrapnel is also enthusiastic about Sydney's neighbours with 18 per cent growth expected over the three years in Newcastle and 17 per cent for Wollongong.

It's less optimistic about Melbourne because of an oversupply of apartments and weakness in the local economy. "Median house price growth in Melbourne is forecast to be minimal, totalling 5 per cent over the 2013 to 2016 forecast period," Mr Zigomanis said.

"And accounting for inflation, prices are actually forecast to fall by 4 per cent in real terms."

But BIS said things were looking up in Brisbane. "By the end of 2015-16, rising interest rates will begin to impact on prices, but only after a forecast total rise of 17 per cent in the median house price over the three years to 2016, representing an average rise of 5.2 per cent per annum," Mr Zigomanis said.

About 15 per cent growth is forecast for the three years in Perth and 10 per cent in Darwin. Canberra can expect a total rise of 3 per cent (a decline of 5 per cent in real terms); Hobart a rise of 4 per cent (a drop of 5 per cent in real terms) and Adelaide 6 per cent growth (or a 3 per cent decline in real terms)."