Thursday, 25 July 2013

Bloomie survey sees unemployment 5.6%; housing finance jump

The latest Bloomberg survey expects unemployment of 5.6% next week, up a tick from 5.5% in May with only a tiny increase in jobs forecast.

Over the past year, jobs growth has been all about New South Wales, which has been reflected in a surging housing market in that state.

Employed persons
Graph: Employed Persons

Unemployment rate
Graph: Unemployment Rate

Source: ABS

The survey also expects housing finance to jump by 2%...so much positivity around the housing markets at the moment.

Meanwhile, what's happening in auctions?

Mebourne recorded a 71% clearance rate today (last week revised to 70%) from 317 reported auctions, a level which should be regarded as 'solid enough'.

In Sydney, auction rates continue to perform very strongly with a scorching 78% clearance rate last weekend.

The hot sector of the market remains the inner west with some 67 auctions today.

Hopes of a correction in Sydney have been dashed.

Dwelling prices in the city are now up by more than 8% since their lowest point of just over one year ago.

As there tends to be a time lag in the data, strong auction clearance rates such as are still being recorded suggest that Sydney's price gains still have some way to run yet. 

After that, investor attention should probably turn to Brisbane.

More experienced heads such as Michael Matusik suggest that housing recoveries tend to "head north" in Australia. 

And Brisbane is overdue for a better run, particularly for those who buy the in-demand property types and in the right locations.

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Great stuff at Wimbledon yesterday, teeing up a thriller of a final between Britain's Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic on Sunday. Lions vs. Wallabies kicking off in less than one hour's time...

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